[SMM Chrome Weekly Review] Steel Tender Rises by 200 in Line with Mainstream Expectations, Holiday Atmosphere Strong but Stockpiling Demand Limited

On September 26, 2025, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was 8,500-8,600 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in Sichuan and north-west China, the ex-factory price was 8,500-8,700 yuan/mt (50% metal content); the offer price in east China was 8,500-8,700 yuan/mt (50% metal content); the offer price for South African high-carbon ferrochrome was 8,000-8,200 yuan/mt (50% metal content); the offer price for Kazakh high-carbon ferrochrome was 9,000-9,300 yuan/mt (50% metal content), flat MoM from the previous trading day.

The ferrochrome market operated steadily this week. At the beginning of the week, Tsingshan announced the steel mill tender price for high-carbon ferrochrome for January at 8,495 yuan/mt (50% metal content), up 200 yuan MoM from September, in line with the mainstream market expectation for an increase, which provided some support to producer confidence. However, the stainless steel market was in the doldrums, and the release of pre-holiday stocking demand for the National Day holiday was limited. Downstream acceptance of high-priced ferrochrome was limited, inquiry and purchase activities slowed down, and overall transactions weakened, with most participants waiting for other steel mills to announce their prices. Cost side, coke prices held steady, while the spot chrome ore market was weak; with sluggish transactions, offer prices dropped back slightly. The immediate smelting cost for ferrochrome mainly fluctuated at highs. Considering that high-priced chrome ore is expected to arrive at ports subsequently, it still provides some support to ferrochrome prices. Supply and demand side, recent news indicated that some steel mills switched production or implemented production cuts. Actual production in September may have fallen short of expectations but remained at historically high levels. Coupled with the boost from the September-October peak season consumption, downstream maintained rigid demand for ferrochrome. With a significant reduction in ferrochrome imports, domestic producers actively maintained high production levels. The overall ferrochrome market maintained a slight deficit in a tight balance, supporting stable price operations. Overall, driven by demand and supported by costs, most ferrochrome producers refused to budge on prices and held a bullish outlook. Market fluctuations before the holiday were limited, with operations mainly steady.

Raw material side, on September 26, 2025, the spot offer price for 40-42% South African fines at Tianjin Port was 56.5-58 yuan/mtu; the price for 40-42% South African raw ore was 51.5-53 yuan/mtu; the offer price for 46-48% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate powder was 58-59 yuan/mtu; the offer price for 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate ore was 59-62 yuan/mtu; the offer price for 40-42% Turkish chrome lump ore was 60-61 yuan/mtu; the offer price for 46-48% Turkish chrome concentrate powder was 66-67 yuan/mtu, flat MoM from the previous trading day. On the futures side, the offer for 40-42% South African fines was $280-284/mt; the offer for 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate powder was $345-355/mt, flat MoM from the previous trading day.

The chrome ore market operated steadily this week. Approaching the National Day holiday, most producers had completed raw material stocking last week. The inquiry and purchase atmosphere was mediocre recently, and the spot chrome ore market performed weakly with generally moderate transaction activity. Withdrawals from warehouses decreased by 19.57%. Additionally, there were multiple concentrated arrivals of chrome ore at ports recently, and warehouse inflows increased by 10.05%. Port inventory fluctuated at highs, increasing the holding pressure on traders, with some traders slightly lowering their offers to avoid inventory buildup risks and achieve timely cash returns. Zimbabwean chrome concentrate ore already saw a decrease of 0.5 yuan/mtu, while recent transactions for South African powder were mostly at the lower end of the range, leading to a growing wait-and-see sentiment. This week, total port inventory of chrome ore reached 3.1568 million mt, up 3.05% WoW; Tianjin port accounted for 2.551 million mt, up 3.57% WoW. In the futures market, a major South African mine maintained its offer at $280/mt, with 40,000 mt traded for shipment before November 15. Overseas miners showed strong willingness to sell, and shipments remained high. Chrome ore imports in August reached 2.0994 million mt, hitting a record high. The emerging supply surplus issue gradually dampened domestic traders' purchase willingness, resulting in mediocre actual transaction volumes. However, high planned production of ferrochrome maintains rigid demand for raw material chrome ore. In the short term, the chrome ore market is expected to operate steadily, with attention on changes in downstream purchase inquiries in the future.